4 major hurricanes, 19 named storms predicted for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
(WLOX) - The upcoming hurricane season is expected to be above-average once again this year with 19 named storms being predicted, which includes nine hurricanes, four of which are expected to be major.
Colorado State University released its annual report predicting the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday. CSU has issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity for over 37 years, predicting tropical cyclone activity through new research and meteorological tools.
Hurricane season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30 each year.
According to CSU’s report: “We estimate that 2022 will have 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 19 named storms (average is 14.4), 90 named storm days (average is 69.4), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4- 5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average.”
According to the report, there is at 71% chance of at least one major hurricane - which is a category three and higher - to make landfall along the continental U.S. coastline. That includes a 47% that a major storm will hit the East Coast, and a 46% chance that it will hit the Gulf Coast, which stretches from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.
Due to current weak La Niña conditions, the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. El Niño typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity through increases in vertical wind shear. The eastern and central tropical Atlantic are currently have near average sea surface temperatures, while the Caribbean and most of the subtropical Atlantic are warmer than normal.
This forecast is based on an extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that was developed using around 40 years of past data and is widely held to be the most accurate extended-range forecast for seasonal hurricane activity.
However, Colorado State emphasizes that, while all of their research is done using scientific predictions and technology, it is impossibly to precisely predict hurricane activity for an entire season in April.
The report states:
“Everyone should realize that it is impossible to precisely predict this season’s hurricane activity in early April. There is, however, much curiosity as to how global ocean and atmosphere features are presently arranged as regards to the probability of an active or inactive hurricane season for the coming year.”
“Our early April statistical and statistical/dynamical hybrid models show strong evidence on ~25–40 years of data that significant improvement over a climatological forecast can be attained. We would never issue a seasonal hurricane forecast unless we had models developed over a long hindcast period which showed skill. We also now include probabilities of exceedance to provide a visualization of the uncertainty associated with these predictions.”
“We issue these forecasts to satisfy the curiosity of the general public and to bring attention to the hurricane problem. There is a general interest in knowing what the odds are for an active or inactive season. One must remember that our forecasts are based on the premise that those global oceanic and atmospheric conditions which preceded comparatively active or inactive hurricane seasons in the past provide meaningful information about similar trends in future seasons.”
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