Early forecasts for 2020 hurricane season look ‘above average’
JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - Researchers from Colorado State University have released the hurricane season forecast for the 2020 hurricane season.
The seasonal forecast calls for an above average hurricane season in terms of the total number of storms.
The forecast calls for 16 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
The forecast also calls for a higher chance of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast. While climatologically, Mississippi has a lower chance (due to our smaller coastline) of a direct hit, but we know that the effects of hurricanes can be felt far and wide.
Statistically, the Mississippi Gulf Coast has an 11% chance in a given year to take a direct strike from a hurricane - the prediction for 2020 is higher, at 17% - similar to our neighbor, Alabama. Louisiana, with its larger coastline typically has a 30% strike potential - this year, it’s 43%.
An average hurricane season typically produces 12 named storms. Six of those typically become hurricanes and of those, three typically become major hurricanes, category 3 or higher.
There is no correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes that form and landfalls in the U.S. A quiet season can still produce a strong hurricane that makes landfall in the US. That’s why residents should prepare each year, no matter the forecast.
Hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
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