Analyst: Turnout could play big part in upcoming Mississippi elections

Analyst: Turnout could play big part in upcoming Mississippi elections

JACKSON, Miss. (WLBT) - Election day is two weeks from today and the race for Governor will be at the top of your ballot.

In some elections, you see folks reference polling or predictions - but what about history?

“Historically, what I found out was that higher turnout favors the Republican candidate for governor in election after election over the last 40 years,” said Republican author and analyst Andy Taggart.

After looking at the numbers, Taggart says there’s a bigger ‘get out the vote’ challenge for the Democrats. He notes that only three times in the past 40 years have Democrats garnered 400,000 plus votes.

And adds it was low turnout that led to a Democratic win in 1999.

“If turnout is 800,000 or more, the Republican Tate Reeves is almost certain to be elected Governor,” Taggart said.

For the first time ever, more Republicans than Democrats voted in a state primary election this year. Now, Tate Reeves says he’s focused on getting as many Mississippians out as possible.

“I was told several months ago by a good friend of mine, ‘Tate, don’t ever forget on election night they’re not going to count how much money you’ve got,’" said Tate Reeves. "'They’re not going to count how many friends you’ve got. They’re going to count how many people vote for you.' That’s why we’re working so hard during the last two weeks to remind conservatives to get to the polls because it’s a critical election.”

Jim Hood says he’s hoping to see those trends bucked and believes it is possible as he sees more groups like educators organizing together.

“There’s a difference in this race that I haven’t seen in years," Hood explained. "Moderates from both parties are coming together and they want to see something done. And so that’s what I’m encouraged by. I’m seeing trends I haven’t seen in 40 years.”

The general election is November 5th.

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