WLBT 3 - Jackson, MS: Exclusive Poll Shows Barbour Leading

Exclusive Poll Shows Barbour Leading

By  J.P. Hervis
jphervis@wlbt.net

It's an uphill battle for Ronnie Musgrove.  That's according to a statewide poll conducted for WLBT by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. The poll is consistent with other election surveys taken in the last few weeks.

Among all the results, there was one that jumped out at Clarion Ledger Political Columnist Sid Salter and Jackson State Political Science Professor Dr. Leslie McLemore.

The poll shows 42% of voters favorably recognize challenger Haley Barbour -- a 9% advantage over incumbent Ronnie Musgrove.

Also, more voters unfavorably recognize the governor. Salter believes that will make things difficult for Musgrove.

"It will be tougher road for Musgrove to come back in this poll with the high unfavorables," he said. 

McLemore calls the favorability numbers surprising. 

"It's going to be a very crucial weekend," McLemore said. "I can imagine both Musgrove and Barbour are going to be out working the state."

Overall, the poll shows Haley Barbour leading Ronnie Musgrove by 4%.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

The poll doesn't surprise Barbour.

"It's going to be a close election," he said. "Everybody knows that."

The governor isn't worried about the poll. 

"It gives a snapshot," Musgrove said, "but it also has a margin of error."

Salter says everything might come down to voters who still aren't sure.

"You have 9% undecided," he said, "and that's what these candidates are fighting for."

McLemore agrees. 

"That's going to determine who is going to become governor," he said.

Ronnie Musgrove has trailed before. But he was elected in 1999 by winning the undecided vote, which was made up primarily of black voters.

Some believe that might not happen this year.

J. Coker, the managing director of Mason-Dixon polling and research, says, "This year, the remaining undecided voters are more white than black, by a two to one margin, 67% white, to 33% black.  High African American voter turnout alone will not likely save Musgrove this time."

McLemore says that's bad news for Musgrove

"It's not in Musgrove's interest to have more white undecided voters than African American undecided," he said.

Both analysts agree Musgrove must win the white undecided vote, and keep the strong support of black voters. But that may be a tall task.

Salter points out it's not over until the voters cast their ballots.

"It's a mistake to count Governor Musgrove out of any campaign," Salter said. "He's a tireless campaigner, but these numbers look pretty good for Haley Barbour."

Six-hudred twenty-five registered Mississippi voters were interviewed to collect the Mason-Dixon poll numbers.

McLemore and Salter will share their political insight with us during WLBT's election coverage Tuesday night.